Polish presidential election too close to call, exit polls suggest

A second exit ballot in Poland’s presidential election has indicated that conservative historian Karol Nawrocki is forward with 50.7% of the vote over Warsaw’s liberal mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski with 49.3%.

The second exit ballot sensationally overturned the results of an exit ballot printed instantly after voting ended that put Trzaskowski forward with a slender lead of fifty.3% to Nawrocki’s 49.7%.

The official consequence is because of be printed on Monday morning, the pinnacle of the state electoral fee mentioned.

Trzaskowski had already claimed victory after the primary exit ballot indicated he was the winner.

“We received,” he mentioned. “We received, though the phrase ‘razor’s edge’ will perpetually enter the Polish language and politics,” he added.

His spouse, Malgorzata, jokingly informed the gang, “I am near having a coronary heart assault”.

Trzaskowski promised to succeed in out to voters who supported his opponent. I shall be a president for all Polish ladies and men,” he mentioned.

Nawrocki, in the meantime, informed his supporters after the results of the primary exit ballot that it was too near name.

“Let’s not lose hope for this evening. We are going to win in the course of the evening, the distinction is minimal. I consider that we’ll get up tomorrow with President Karol Nawrocki,” he mentioned.

Poland’s president is a largely ceremonial position with restricted affect on overseas coverage and defence, however they will veto laws and Donald Tusk’s pro-EU coalition authorities lacks a sufficiently big parliamentary majority to overturn it.

The present conservative incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, has used his powers to stop Prime Minister Tusk delivering key marketing campaign guarantees together with eradicating political affect from the judiciary and liberalising the nation’s strict abortion regulation.

If Trzaskowski’s victory is confirmed that impediment could be eliminated and would enable Tusk to cement Poland’s place within the European mainstream.

Nonetheless, Tusk additionally faces opposition from inside his personal coalition from the conservative Peoples’ Get together on points together with abortion and legalising civil partnerships.

A victory for nationwide conservative Karol Nawrocki, who’s supported by opposition Regulation and Justice (PiS) get together, would imply continued battle between the federal government and president.

It will additionally re-energise PiS, which misplaced energy 18 months in the past, giving the get together the assumption that it could possibly go on to win parliamentary elections in 2027.

Each candidates assist continued help for neighbouring Ukraine, though Nawrocki has mentioned he opposes its entry into Nato and the EU for now whereas Russia continues its warfare of aggression.

Each males differ over their method to the EU. Trzaskowski, a former Europe minister, helps Tusk’s imaginative and prescient of a Poland on the coronary heart of the European mainstream, influencing selections by robust relations with Germany and France.

A deputy chief of Tusk’s Civic Platform, he has served as Warsaw mayor since 2018.

He is the son of a well-known Polish jazz pianist, speaks a number of languages and is considered by some voters as a member of the nation’s liberal elite who’s out of contact with unusual Poles.

Based on the CBOS polling firm, Trzaskowski’s typical voter is aged 30-40 years outdated, is comparatively effectively off with left-liberal views and is open to LGBTQ+ and migrants’ rights. They have a tendency to reside in giant cities and have constructive views of the EU.

Some voters mentioned he tried to “artificially” current himself as a candidate who values patriotism. Through the marketing campaign, he has taken a a lot harder line towards unlawful migration, one thing Tusk began to do earlier than successful energy in 2023 and he has volunteered to do primary navy coaching.

Nawrocki, 42, helps a robust sovereign Poland and doesn’t need the nation to cede any extra powers to Brussels. He opposes the EU’s local weather and migration insurance policies. He is a conservative Catholic that prioritises conventional household values.

He was comparatively unknown nationally earlier than he was chosen by opposition get together PiS to be their “unofficial” candidate.

A eager newbie boxer and footballer, he typically posted photos of himself figuring out, permitting PiS to current him as a robust candidate who would get up for unusual Poles and the nation’s nationwide pursuits.

A fan of President Donald Trump, he flew to Washington in the course of the marketing campaign for a particularly transient assembly to get a thumbs-up photograph of himself with the American president within the Oval Workplace.

Through the marketing campaign he was attacked by the federal government and media for being morally unfit to be the nation’s president, however the allegations didn’t diminish his assist over the last week of campaigning.

Throughout a presidential debate, Nawrocki mentioned that he, like most Poles, owned one condominium. That turned out to be a lie.

Nawrocki was accused of benefiting from a weak senior citizen to accumulate his council flat at an enormous low cost in trade for guarantees of care that have been unfulfilled. Following the scandal, Nawrocki mentioned he would donate the flat to charity however at all times denied the accusation.

Polish information web site Onet.pl accused Nawrocki of serving to to rearrange intercourse employees for company on the luxurious Grand Lodge within the Baltic seaside resort of Sopot when he labored there as a safety guard.

The story was primarily based on nameless sources, however Onet.pl mentioned the witnesses had sworn they might repeat the allegations underneath oath in courtroom. Nawrocki referred to as the story a pack of lies and mentioned he would sue the web site.

His opponents portrayed him as a soccer hooligan who admired gangsters and neo-Nazi ultras. Nawrocki didn’t deny participating in hooligan brawls as a youthful man, calling them “noble fights”. He has additionally mentioned these allegations have been an try to smear his status.

Some Nawrocki voters informed me they didn’t consider sure tales about him, saying they have been innovations of the mainstream Trzaskowski-supporting media.